COVID-19 Data Analysis

Nuovi Decessi e Terapie Intensive

Correlazione tra nuovi deceduti e terapie intensive.

Max Pierini

Rapporto grezzo nuovi deceduti su terapie intensive:

Definizione e rimozione outliers (minori di 0% e maggiori di 100%)

2020-06-24 00:00:00: -28.97%
2020-08-15 00:00:00: 287.27%

Fit su polinomio di ottavo grado

Correlazione sulla linea temporale.

Per ovviare alla eteroschedasticità la correlazione sarà effettuata sul logaritmo

$$ \ln(\textrm{nuovi_deceduti}) = \alpha + \beta \cdot \ln(\textrm{terapia_intensiva}) $$
OLS Regression Results
Dep. Variable: np.log(nuovi_deceduti) R-squared: 0.920
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.919
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 4990.
Date: Thu, 06 May 2021 Prob (F-statistic): 7.87e-241
Time: 17:33:24 Log-Likelihood: -302.69
No. Observations: 438 AIC: 609.4
Df Residuals: 436 BIC: 617.5
Df Model: 1
Covariance Type: nonrobust
coef std err t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
Intercept -2.3647 0.104 -22.814 0.000 -2.568 -2.161
np.log(terapia_intensiva) 1.0619 0.015 70.638 0.000 1.032 1.091
Omnibus: 59.237 Durbin-Watson: 1.008
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 381.516
Skew: 0.324 Prob(JB): 1.43e-83
Kurtosis: 7.526 Cond. No. 31.5


Notes:
[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.

Correlazione lineare nuovi deceduti e terapie intensive per mese:

$$ \textrm{nuovi_deceduti}_{\textrm{mese}} = \alpha + \beta \cdot \textrm{terapia_intensiva}_{\textrm{mese}} $$
alpha beta R2
February 2020 0.446006 0.0693291 0.878506
March 2020 -46.9427 0.225071 0.951659
April 2020 70.6821 0.150324 0.785266
May 2020 5.09448 0.193365 0.608508
June 2020 9.61792 0.181337 0.574592
July 2020 -4.61802 0.288271 0.334849
August 2020 17.5333 -0.111838 0.00335505
September 2020 0.199874 0.0693856 0.50046
October 2020 -30.9098 0.151257 0.934528
November 2020 -229.945 0.246069 0.774955
December 2020 -154.967 0.251011 0.34185
January 2021 37.8361 0.171251 0.0484409
February 2021 122.487 0.0965327 0.00548389
March 2021 27.1902 0.111454 0.417416
April 2021 -102.085 0.146399 0.267529
May 2021 1103.42 -0.352889 0.327324
© 2020 Max Pierini. Thanks to Sandra Mazzoli & Alessio Pamovio

Exported from Italia/CFR_TI.ipynb committed by maxdevblock on Thu May 6 17:56:57 2021 revision 283, 8d4bca97