COVID-19 Data Analysis

Nuovi Decessi e Terapie Intensive

Correlazione tra nuovi deceduti e terapie intensive.

Max Pierini

Nei precedenti 210 giorni (~7 mesi) si sono osservati 13655 nuovi ingressi in terapia intensiva.

Nei precedenti 30 giorni (~1 mese) si sono osservati 1024 nuovi ingressi in terapia intensiva.

Rapporto grezzo nuovi deceduti su terapie intensive:

Definizione e rimozione outliers (minori di 0% e maggiori di 100%)

2020-06-24 00:00:00: -28.97%
2020-08-15 00:00:00: 287.27%

Fit su polinomio di ottavo grado

Correlazione sulla linea temporale.

Per ovviare alla eteroschedasticità la correlazione sarà effettuata sul logaritmo

$$ \ln(\textrm{nuovi_deceduti}) = \alpha + \beta \cdot \ln(\textrm{terapia_intensiva}) $$
OLS Regression Results
Dep. Variable: np.log(nuovi_deceduti) R-squared: 0.855
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.855
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 4836.
Date: Sun, 22 May 2022 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 17:23:56 Log-Likelihood: -657.27
No. Observations: 819 AIC: 1319.
Df Residuals: 817 BIC: 1328.
Df Model: 1
Covariance Type: nonrobust
coef std err t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
Intercept -2.4501 0.103 -23.832 0.000 -2.652 -2.248
np.log(terapia_intensiva) 1.0747 0.015 69.538 0.000 1.044 1.105
Omnibus: 43.177 Durbin-Watson: 0.690
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 142.094
Skew: 0.087 Prob(JB): 1.40e-31
Kurtosis: 5.033 Cond. No. 37.0


Warnings:
[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.

Correlazione lineare nuovi deceduti e terapie intensive per mese:

$$ \textrm{nuovi_deceduti}_{\textrm{mese}} = \alpha + \beta \cdot \textrm{terapia_intensiva}_{\textrm{mese}} $$
alpha beta R2
February 2020 0.446006 0.069329 0.878506
March 2020 -46.942656 0.225071 0.951659
April 2020 70.682106 0.150324 0.785266
May 2020 5.094476 0.193365 0.608508
June 2020 9.617921 0.181337 0.574592
July 2020 -4.618023 0.288271 0.334849
August 2020 17.533304 -0.111838 0.003355
September 2020 0.199874 0.069386 0.50046
October 2020 -30.909831 0.151257 0.934528
November 2020 -229.945253 0.246069 0.774955
December 2020 -154.967043 0.251011 0.34185
January 2021 37.836128 0.171251 0.048441
February 2021 122.487433 0.096533 0.005484
March 2021 27.190203 0.111454 0.417416
April 2021 -102.085165 0.146399 0.267529
May 2021 -8.218451 0.10084 0.530943
June 2021 5.99259 0.078841 0.517038
July 2021 -10.097721 0.147789 0.190847
August 2021 -15.551966 0.13291 0.598982
September 2021 48.230263 0.016008 0.002522
October 2021 28.532973 0.025669 0.005864
November 2021 3.54998 0.110201 0.300844
December 2021 -37.278312 0.165002 0.608791
January 2022 -601.56239 0.560052 0.530065
February 2022 12.14567 0.249376 0.568662
March 2022 7.685648 0.269483 0.251453
April 2022 134.705747 0.006369 0.000046
May 2022 -94.777607 0.599935 0.208879
© 2020 Max Pierini. Thanks to Sandra Mazzoli & Alessio Pamovio. ipynb-website © 2017 Peter Carbonetto & Gao Wang

Exported from Italia/CFR_TI.ipynb committed by maxdevblock on Sun May 22 17:50:34 2022 revision 700, 97ae0d9e